Headcount enrollment has fallen from 11,200 in fall 2019 to 9,000, and the number of local high school graduates is projected to drop another 6% by 2031. Only 27% of first-time students complete a credential within three years, and 55% return for a second fall. From FY29 the state will tie 25% of its appropriation, about $7.4 million, to completions instead of enrollment. Meanwhile the nursing program turns away 200 qualified applicants a year for 80 seats, and regional manufacturers report 400 unfilled technician jobs. The north campus carries $42 million of deferred maintenance, the east campus uses 45% of its classroom hours, and the operating budget is $78 million.
Challenges- Funding is about to follow completions, and nearly three in four new students leave without a credential.
- The programs with the strongest job demand are capped by lab space and clinical faculty, while 11 programs graduate fewer than eight students a year.
- Reserves cover 9% of annual operating expenses, too thin to absorb another enrollment drop or a failed capital request.
We will focus on- Completion first: advising, course maps and first-year math and English, because every retained student also stabilizes revenue.
- Health sciences and advanced manufacturing, the two fields where employers will co-fund seats and graduates earn a living wage.
- Adults aged 25 and over, the only local population that is growing.
We will not- Building student housing or adding athletics to compete with the regional university for recent high school graduates.
- Offering bachelor's degrees, even though state law now allows it and some trustees favor it. The accreditation and faculty cost would take money from completion.
- Opening a third site in the southern county. Those students will be served online and through evening sections at partner high schools.