Revenue is $11.5 million: $7.1 million from 410 wholesale cafe accounts, $3.6 million online from 6,800 subscribers and one-off orders, and $0.8 million from two roastery cafes. Green coffee costs have risen 38% in two years while our wholesale prices rose 9%, so wholesale gross margin has dropped from 43% to 34% and EBITDA is 6% of revenue. We lose 14% of wholesale accounts a year, about half of them to cheaper roasters offering free espresso machines. Online, subscribers cancel at 6.5% a month and the cost to acquire one has gone from $29 to $48.
Challenges- Wholesale prices are fixed in annual price lists while green coffee is bought at market, so every rise in the coffee price comes straight out of margin.
- Cafes see us as a bean supplier. When a competitor offers a lower price per pound and a free machine, we have nothing but quality to argue with.
- Subscription growth is being bought with paid ads at rising cost, and one subscriber in three cancels within six months.
We will focus on- Independent cafes and small groups of 2 to 10 sites within one day's delivery of the roastery.
- Coffee sold together with training and equipment service, priced on an index that follows green coffee.
- Home subscribers who first tasted the coffee in a cafe we supply.
We will not- Supermarket and grocery distribution, despite two approaches from regional chains. Shelf life requirements and trade margins do not fit coffee roasted to order.
- Opening more of our own cafes. The two we have stay as training sites and showrooms.
- Matching price or lending free machines to hold accounts that buy on price per pound alone.