Rooftop units bring $640 million of our $1.6 billion revenue, and 94% of that is gas-heated equipment. Our older heat pump models sell 3,300 units a year for $38 million. A new cold-climate heat pump range, 3 to 25 tons, starts production in March 2027 with capacity for 6,000 units in the first year and 18,000 by 2029. We sell through 86 independent distributors with 410 branches, 22 manufacturer's representative firms and a national accounts team. Only 14 branches stock a heat pump today, 180 of 2,300 active contractors are trained to commission one, and we are the basis of design on 4% of the heat pump rooftop specifications we track.
Challenges- Seven in ten replacement sales are emergencies filled from branch stock within 48 hours. First-year capacity of 6,000 units cannot stock 410 branches, so the largest part of the market is out of reach at launch.
- Plan-and-specification projects take 14 to 20 months from design to shipment, and engineers reuse their last equipment schedule. A specification won in 2027 ships in 2028 or 2029.
- Contractors price the unknowns of swapping gas heat for a heat pump into the bid, or steer the owner back to a like-for-like gas unit: curb adapters, electrical service and complaints on the coldest days.
We will focus on- Planned replacements, where the owner has months to choose: national retail and restaurant accounts, school districts and property portfolios with aging units.
- Three launch regions where distributors already receive requests for electric heating quotes: the Northeast, the Upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest.
- The 3 to 12.5 ton sizes first, which are 80% of unit volume. The 15 to 25 ton sizes follow in 2028.
We will not- Emergency replacement stock in every branch before 2029. It is the biggest pool of demand, but thin stock spread across 410 branches would mean stockouts and discounting.
- Selling direct to contractors or building owners online. The margin is about 18 points better, but distributors carry the stock, credit and local service the launch depends on.
- Pricing at parity with gas units to speed adoption. The range holds a 22% premium and is sold on installed cost and operating cost, at the risk of slower first-year volume.