The chain runs 1,150 stores and buys $31M a year from us: $19M of corrugated shelf-ready packaging, $9M of folding cartons and $3M of molded fiber trays. That is 8% of our $380M revenue and 22% of the $140M the chain spends in these categories. The three-year supply agreement ends in March 2028 and a new VP of procurement plans a tender in Q3 2027. On-time in-full delivery has slipped to 91% against a contracted 97%, which cost $410,000 in chargebacks this year. We rank sixth of 14 packaging suppliers on the chain's scorecard, and account gross margin is 17%.
Challenges- Late and short deliveries into the chain's distribution centers have turned supply chain into a detractor a year before the tender.
- The relationship runs through one category buyer. We have no standing contact with the new VP of procurement or the merchandising executive who sponsors own brands.
- Fixed pricing on 60% of volume left us absorbing containerboard cost increases, so growth at current terms would dilute margin.
We will focus on- Delivery performance into the chain's six distribution centers.
- Fiber-based replacements for plastic in fresh departments and frozen own-brand cartons, where the chain's 2028 recyclability commitment creates demand.
- A negotiated extension signed before the tender is issued.
We will not- Bidding for the chain's flexible film and pouch spend. We would have to buy it in, and it distracts from fiber.
- Matching reverse-auction prices on plain transit cases. We will give up that $2M of volume if needed to protect margin.
- Selling directly to the chain's contract manufacturers this year, even though they specify a further $60M of packaging.